U.S. Foreign Policy: A Review of the New Trump Administration and its Potential Impact on Geopolitic
The Trump Transition
Cossa: Well, we’re still learning about Mr. Trump, and Mr. Trump is still learning about being president. So, we’re in a transition period right now. His team is coming. Secretary of Defence has been approved and the Secretary of State will be approved. Until Mr. Trump’s full team is in place and we start getting more clarity in our policies, we’re still in a “wait and see” mode.
Consistency in U.S. Policy – the Strength of Continuity
The important thing to understand about U.S. foreign policy is that it doesn’t automatically change with every president. 99% of the people who work in the national security and foreign policy establishment who were there on January 19 are still there on January 20. The Secretary changes, the Deputy Secretary, and the Assistant Deputy Secretary change. However, most of the people doing the work are the same. They are pursuing the same policies. So, if your job was to work on the U.S.-Japan alliance two weeks ago, your job is still to work on the U.S.-Japan alliance. That’s part of the strength of our government – that continuity.
Trump’s relationship with Japan and Asia
Everything that I see, as far as what the President has said, indicates that our relationship with Japan will continue to be a strong one. So, we’ll have to just wait and see now whether or not there are any changes at the margin; but we expect to still have an important cooperative relationship.
On Choosing a Knowledgeable Ambassador to Japan
Fujii: Mr. Trump is said to be “an outsider”, not from Washington politics. So, some people engaged in the U.S.-Japan alliance are afraid that they will find confusion in East Asia and South East Asia policy. Several months ago, you recommended that Mr. Richard Armitage be the next ambassador to Japan. He is very knowledgeable about Japan and the US-Japan alliance. What was your intention with regard to that?
Cossa: What I was trying to point out is that we need to have very knowledgeable ambassadors in the various countries. There are two things about ambassadors: One is that you hope they are people who understand the political process or have good staff around them that does. Second, you want an ambassador who can pick up the phone and call the President. Caroline Kennedy did not have a lot of diplomatic experience but had a close personal relationship with President Obama. So, the Japanese people were happy because they knew that she could pick up the phone and Obama would answer. That is probably even more important than having the basic knowledge. To the extent that somebody has both, we’re much better off, of course.
Mr. Armitage is someone who knows Japan very well but he’s not obviously been the President’s choice. I don’t know the gentleman who has been nominated to be the ambassador to Japan, but presumably, he’s someone with a good link to President Trump. That is what’s most important. This is because he’ll have a very strong team around him of State Department professionals. I’m sure you know, the Deputy Chief of Mission is the one that runs the day-to-day operation and advises the ambassador.
Making the Right Cabinet Choices
Fujii: In recent news, Mr. Jim Mattis is going to Korea and Japan. How do you see him as Secretary of Defence? And what do you think was the purpose of his visit?
Cossa: I think that Mr. Mattis’s selection as Secretary of Defence was an extremely good one.
Fujii: Good one?
Cossa: In fact, of all the cabinet positions, it’s the best as far as putting someone in the job who understands the requirements; that understands the existing obligations and commitments and understands world politics. General Mattis certainly fits all of those descriptions. His choice of going to Japan and Korea first is not an accident. There’s recognition in Washington that when a new president comes in, there’s always great anxiety. Eight years ago, there was anxiety about President Obama. Would he continue to be focused on Asia? As it turns out, he developed a pivot to focus on Asia as the number one priority.
So, General Mattis is trying to again, send the right message that he and the new Administration recognize the importance of Asia and the importance of alliances with Japan and Korea. He’s going there to reassure our traditional allies of U.S. commitment. You’ll find that this is not unusual. Eight years ago, Secretary Clinton’s first trip was to Asia as well as to Japan. I would hope that, assuming Secretary Tillerson is confirmed, that Asia will be, early on, one of his visits as well, to again, reinforce the nature of the relationship.
On the Trump meeting with Prime Minister Abe
Prime Minister Abe was the first foreign leader to meet with President-elect Trump and will be meeting with President Trump very shortly in another month or so. Again, that kind of personal interaction is important and reassuring.
Fujii: Do you think that meeting was successful? There are not so many reports on that.
Cossa: Yes. I think, first of all, you have to understand that tradition in the United States is, we have one president at a time. So, it would have been very inappropriate for Mr. Trump to be talking about American foreign policy publicly with Mr. Abe because that would be undermining the current president. So, that’s why they kept their discussion private. However, Mr. Abe did say it was a good face-to-face meeting. Building the personal relationship between the two, is very important. That’s already begun. That is good news for both of the U.S. and Japan.
What was the meaning of the Trump-Tsai Telephone Call?
Fujii: Another news report was a telephone call between Mr. Trump and Ms. Tsai, Taiwan president. I think that was very shocking to the Chinese government. What do you expect will be the next move in the U.S.-China relationship, and U.S.-Taiwan relationship?
Cossa: I think Mr. Trump likes to surprise people – and shock people. Certainly, he did that by accepting the phone call from President Tsai. That is obviously, something that hadn’t happened before. If he picks up a phone and calls her when he’s President that is significant. Talking as a President-elect is just trying to demonstrate a certain amount of independence. I don’t see that as, in itself, a significant change in U.S. policy. The Taiwanese were very happy on that day. Then, they became very nervous that somehow or other, Taiwan might be a bargaining chip with China. I don’t think that will happen either. Taiwan is not a U.S. property that we can bargain. Taiwan is an independent entity and will remain that way.
Making China Nervous
So, he got a lot of people’s attention, which he likes to do. He made the Chinese nervous, and he’s also been trying to keep the Chinese from being too overconfident about their ability to deal with Mr. Trump. He needs to be a little more cautious as he is now President. What he was saying and tweeting as President-elect is one thing: As President, it’s another. So, I hope that we will see perhaps a little more measured activity regarding China and Taiwan. Taiwan is going to worry about Taiwan. It won’t do anything that will openly provoke the Chinese. I think Mr. Trump will learn to be a little more nuanced and a little more careful in dealing with a Cross-Strait issue.
Defending Japan and East Asia
Fujii: During the Trump administration, do you think there would be a geopolitical change in East Asia?
Cossa: I would be willing to bet that if we have this discussion one year from now, you will find that U.S. policy vis-a-vis China, Taiwan, alliances and Senkakus will look very much like the policy looked six months ago. There won’t, I believe, be dramatic changes. There is no question that Senkaku falls within the U.S.-Japan alliance. This wasn’t a presidential opinion. This has been consistent, legal obligation because the U.S.-Japan treaty says that the U.S. will defend Japan and territories administered by Japan. There is no question that Senkaku is administered by Japan since the United States gave them to Japan to administer. So that is not an issue and shouldn’t be an issue. I think people worry but I don’t think there’s a real need to be worried or to spend too much time focusing on that.
The One China Policy
I think the One China policy may be tweaked. We may do a little bit more with Taiwan than we’ve done before, but it’s not going to significantly change in part because Taiwan doesn’t want it to significantly change. It would undermine their diplomatic relationship. We already saw that with the telephone call. While it is obvious that both sides had agreed in advance to this telephone call, the Chinese primarily blamed Tsai in Taiwan.
So, if the U.S. does something with Taiwan that the Chinese don’t like, the Chinese may not have a lot of ways to “punish” the United States for it, but they have lots of ways in which they can “punish” Taiwan. This includes tightening of restrictions: Reduce Cross-Strait visitors, flights. There are many things without ever firing a shot where they can make Taiwan’s life even more miserable vis a vis diplomatic relations with various countries. So, Taiwan is not looking for a fight with the Mainland. President Tsai is primarily domestic oriented, trying to make sure that Taiwan prospers. So, again, I would argue that after all is said and done, things will look very much the same a year from now as they looked a year ago.
Fujii: Do you think Trump’s phone call with Ms. Tsai was a bargaining chip against the Chinese government?
Cossa: First of all, I think it was an attempt to do something to get headlines and a little shocking. It was putting the Chinse on notice that things might be a little bit different and that they need to reaffirm things with the new Administration. It also reflected Mr. Trump listening to his nonprofessional advisors. There were a lot of people around Mr. Trump when he was candidate and President-elect, who had a certain view about Taiwan and about China. Those were the people who were whispering in his ear. Now that he’s President, he’s going to have other people whispering in his ear including: the Secretary of State, the National Security Advisor and the Secretary of Defence. They will be giving him a different message. He’s a very smart man and he will understand the importance of the messages he’s being given.
U.S. Foreign Policy: A Review of the New Trump Administration and its Potential Impact on Geopolitic
